It definitely won like 4 to 5 awards by itself in the 2022 Game Awards, so it would have been likely to be controversial to see it take GOTY on top of everything else (not because of GOW winning in 2018, but because of other runner ups in other awards being shot down by GOWR)...but I think that your points definitely sum up why it couldn't have taken Elden Ring's spot this time around.

With how huge yet new Elden Ring was, as well as being one of the most hyped games ever since its very first reveal (I still remember a lot of people being concerned about that quick Malenia trailer being the only thing seen about the game for years lol), it makes sense that it won the biggest award compared to Ragnarok, and even then, even if your favorite game didn't win "game of the year" or other awards (like some people might have felt about the awards that GOWR did get lol), it won't change that a great game is a great game, and that no one can take away your own experience enjoying it.