Trump is going to tariff the world?
Should be fun.
But, what is interesting is how scared the world is because of it. What is going to happen to the economy!! Oh noes....
I have a question. There are about 8 billion people on earth, and there are about 350 million in the US. That means that roughly 4.5% of the global population live in the US. The greatest country on earth.
For some Americans.
But, the reason the rest of the world is worried, is because they rely on the biggest economy in the world to dump a lot of useless shit upon. The globalised economy has been set up for some to make extreme wealth, while the majority suffer. So, why not take a mulligan and reset to play again.
This is the 2022 GDP of the top ten countries:
You can see why the US is so powerful, because it generated over 25% of the global total. However, should this worry the rest of the world? Rather than bending the knee to keep selling minimal amounts of products to the the US, shouldn't the rest of the world be looking to build their economy without the US?
As far as I know, the US doesn't really need anything from the rest of the world in order to survive, which is a good position to be in. However, does the rest of the world need anything from the US to survive? I know, you are thinking the US military - but is that really the case?
What would happen if the RoW enacted a total trade embargo on the US?
Fuck, that would be disruptive and the markets would go into shock. But, if you think about it for a bit, why not just isolate the US completely and any infrastructure that the RoW currently relies on, just rebuild on this side of the wall. It might be slow to start, but it will quickly build momentum, especially since the resources and value generated would be spent locally, rather than being extracted out by US companies who don't hire many people locally, nor pay their taxes where they earn their money.
Think about a few of the numbers. Facebook would go from 3B MAU, to at most 350M. YouTube would go from 2.7B MAU to 350M. Whatsapp 2.4B, Instagram 2.3B.... to max 350M. And, that is hard-capped at 350M - less if you count the deportations of illegals, and then the below replacement rate birth rate.
These companies earn massive amounts that they pull into the US through various means, but there are non-US alternatives to all of these programs, or they could be created. Yes, it is inconvenient, but hard-forking the US out of the rest of the world economy is doable.
And, think about the investments.
the top 10 largest companies in the United States account for roughly 38 per cent of the S&P 500 stock index, the highest level since comparable records began over a century ago.
So, that means if you invest 100 dollars in the 500 largest companies, 38 dollars is actually going into 10 companies. That inflates their value, but it also sets up a pretty big shock if something like global trade embargoes on US companies happen. Especially those tech stocks, considering that the majority of their income and business model comes from outside the US. Imagine Amazon only having access to US produced goods, and only able to sell to the US market. That is all of the goods, no more Chinese factories, and Indians working the call centres.
But what about the US oil!!
With 4.5% of the global population, the US alone consumes 20% of the oil. And before you say...
That's right. The US consumes more oil than it currently produces. Sure, they can ramp up production by 25% to cover the deficit, so they'll be fine, right? But, life isn't only about oil.
And While we are at it....
The U.S. dollar remains the world's primary reserve currency and remains deeply embedded in the global financial system. Central banks and financial institutions around the world hold vast quantities of U.S. dollars for trade, investment, and value.
60% of the world's 11.5 trillion in foreign exchange reserve is in US dollars. Maybe, that should no longer be a thing at all? Perhaps, there should be a new RoW token for global trade, excluding the US of course.
And yeah, this would be pretty fucking disruptive to everyone's lives, but this would actually be an opportunity to have the "great reset" without including the most abusive economy in the world in the process.
My question is, what does the rest of the world actually need from the US, that it can't produce itself? Sure, there are military gaps, but they can be closed pretty rapidly. And yeah, there are some tech gaps, but they can also be closed pretty quickly. And if this were to happen, how many people would choose to jump the border *out of the US and move to the RoW - how many people on greencards working in those tech companies that have been extracting globally, will choose to go home to wherever they are from, and help set up infrastructure and business for 7.65 billion people.
I suspect, put under these kinds of conditions, it would end up in a period of extreme creativity and innovation, where the mistakes of past implementations can be corrected in global rollouts.
What does the US lead in the world?
The USA is the world's foremost economic and military power, with global interests and an unmatched global reach. America's gross domestic product accounts for close to a quarter of the world total, and its military budget is reckoned to be almost as much as the rest of the world's defence spending put together.
While descriptions of the U.S. role in the world since the end of World War II vary in their
specifics, it can be described in general terms as consisting of four key elements: global
leadership; defense and promotion of the liberal international order; defense and promotion of
freedom, democracy, and human rights; and prevention of the emergence of regional hegemons in
Eurasia.
Hmmmm.... that second one comes from the US congress.
"Defense" is mentioned twice - I guess that is why they spend the same as the RoW on their military. All that defending they do, and reventing the emergence of regional "hegemons" (*supreme leadrers).
Rather than trying to save the trade with the US to make a little money in one area, while they take more in another, just rip off the band-aid and cut them off entirely. Even by their own congressional description, what they add to the rest of the world is protection.
Like the Mafia.
What a lot of Americans forget is, the rest of the world is pretty awesome and filled with people who can design and build things relatively well. The threats that are being made are based on a fragile economic situation, and if it cracks, everyone is going to suffer. But, like a gangrenous appendage, cut the US off early enough, and while the shock will be large, the RoW economy will grow rapidly, because that is how economics works. It would be an adjustment for sure, but that adjustment would be made in the numbers more than the reality of goods and services.
Trump is right.
The rest of the world should pull its weight in the defense sectors, and its weight is enormous, as there are 7.6 billion people involved. That is an incredibly large group of people, and market potential. Cut ties with the US, sever the fibre optic cables, shift to RoW satellites...
Stop being reliant, and start building.
But it will never happen... Because there is too much power being generated for the very few. They don't care about any of this. They don't care if people are starving, or if there is war. All they care about is ensuring that they are doing better than everyone else, at an increasing rate. Things are working fine in their opinion, and they don't have to bend the knee, because they own the infrastructure that keeps the status quo ticking.
We are the fools.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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