Hello!
Today the twitter user "therationalroot posted a photo of the progress of the 4th halving. The rationalroot is a user that wants to be anonymous, he always shares interesting information about Bitcoin. He is the creator of the spiral model of Bitcoin and has been in many Bitcoin conferences wearing a mask with a carrot.
He's a smart guy and I encourage you to follow him. Here is the image:
From this image we can get several conclusions. The first one and the most obvious one is that this 4th halving we got all time highs before the start of the halving (due to Bitcoin ETFs), and this is something that has never happened. The all time highs usually take place after the halving.
The second conclusion is that the tops are usually between 22% and 37%. They are never after the 50% of progress. Based on this information we can say that the top could be between:
- February 2025
and - July 2025
It could happen after July 2025 but I wouldn't bet for that. I will be very very careful when we get to February and July 2025. During those period I will be selling some of my stack.
At some point I assume that Bitcoin will don't have 70% or 80% corrections but I don't think we are there yet.
Of course, it all changes if the United States of America makes Bitcoin a Strategic Reserve Asset. In this case, I will be selling a very small part of my stack just to enjoy life a little bit.
Of course, this is not financial advise. I don't know anything about the future. This are just conclusions that we can take after looking at the image from therationalroot.
I hope you had a great day!
Posted Using InLeo Alpha