What's the worst way the markets can scare investors right before the most epic blow-off top in the history of the S&P 500 and crypto? Is it the wars that have crippled parts of the world, hyperinflation, a new disease, or AI taking over humanity, or a mix of all of these?
Well, at least when it comes to crypto, if you look at the past, you will notice that no matter whether it is a bull market or a bear market, we have always had occasional periods when certain external factors did not look as favorable for the market as we would want them to.
In a bear market, every piece of FUD has the purpose of pushing oversold assets into deeper oversold territory, while during bull markets, FUD is there to help the market correct. Yes, the current correction is a healthy one, but very few see it as such.
People who buy on euphoria want that euphoria to last forever, and even if such a phase is longer than expected, they still forget one important aspect of a bull market: taking profits. The same thing will happen with this one as well. I guarantee that.
Until a couple of months ago, it seemed that the ETFs would soak up all the liquid Bitcoin off the market and that the chance to scoop up BTC under $100,000 was getting thinner and thinner. Well, now we have a 23% discount, and nobody is buying because the majority are waiting for $30,000 or $40,000.
What happened with the ETFs buying all the Bitcoin? I'll tell you what happened... The investors behind these ETFs, the so-called boomers waking up to BTC, are driven by the same sentiment as us plebs, and when they saw weakness in the market, they stopped buying, and some are probably even selling.
They will be back once BTC rallies strong towards $100,000, I guarantee it (as if there's any guarantee in crypto 😅). Meanwhile...
JP Morgan disclosed $731,246 of spot Bitcoin ETF investments in BlackRock’s IBIT, Bitwise’s BITB, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Grayscale’s GBTC. The majority of the amount — $477,425 — was invested in IBIT. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo reported a $141,817 investment in Grayscale’s GBTC during the first quarter.
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And...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that Nigeria embrace the regulated use of digital assets by licensing international crypto exchanges.
source
I thought the IMF, JPM, and Nigeria were against crypto... Looks like all their shitshow was nothing but intentionally spread FUD and nothing more. Many still take for granted what such institutions are saying, not realizing that these moguls are making money behind closed doors and will never disclose their moves in advance. Never.
As we get close to the peak of the markets in crypto, equities, and real estate, all the reasons why the bull market shall not continue, that I have enumerated in the introduction, will fade away. Once everything is clear and every dickhead will call the bull market for what it is (a bull market), it is when the house of cards will crumble.
The S&P500 will fall out of the sky, and crypto will follow, but the majority will then see it as a correction. Make sure to bag as much profit as possible when this happens. No one knows when this will happen, end of 2024, 2025, we will have to see, and it is also worth noting that not all markets will peak at the same time.
Timing the market and nailing the top is almost impossible; thus, DCA is king, and don't forget that the bull market is about taking profits, not buying tops. Have a great weekend, folks, and see you all next time.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
